Developing East Coast Low

A strong upper trough will move into the region Sunday and help deepen in an existing surface trough along the coast. An East Coast Low is likely to form near the SE QLD coastline. The forecast position and intensity of this low varies between the weather models but the most likely outcome at this stage is for the Gold Coast, Northern Rivers and northern parts of the Mid North Coast to cop the worst of it – especially during Monday. Strong to gale force wind gusts may also develop along the coastal strip. Some locations may see falls of 150-200mm over 48 hours – though this looks much more likely for coastal areas.

Thunderstorms are possible in the mix as instability is present both Sunday and Monday – expect heavy rainfalls if you’re under one of those.

Rain areas and showers should persist into Tuesday clearing from the north with Wednesday fining up. Then several days of clear skies are expected.

Attached is the rainfall forecast map from the BoM for Monday.

Developing East Coast Low

Snow NSW Northern Tablelands 25 June 2013

Approx 2cm of snow fell in the Black Mountain area and 1cm in Guyra between 4 and 5.30am 25 June.

Further wet snow and sleet fell across the region during the morning but it did not accumulate further. 850 hPa temps needed to be 1 C lower for a better cover.

Snow NSW Northern Tablelands 25 June 2013

Extreme Lightning El Reno Tornadic Supercell 31st May 2013

Some crazy lightning was observed on this tornadic developing supercell. It was so intense we remained in the vehicle during the barrage – and as you note in the video, I took the aerial into the car! I understand that the probability was low but chaser vehicles have been struck in the past!

Extreme Lightning El Reno Tornadic Supercell 31st May 2013

Flood Watch for parts of NSW

 

A large part of the NSW coast is on flood watch with an east Coast Low expected to develop during Monday. Models are not consistent with the timing or placement of a possible low, or ever whether heavy rainfall will push inland much. However the BoM have issued a flood watch

FLOOD WATCH FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE PATERSON, WILLIAMS, WYONG, NEPEAN, GEORGES AND THE TIDAL ZONES OF THE COOKS AND WORONORA VALLEYS.

Issued at 12:45 pm EST on Friday 21 June 2013

Note: This Flood Watch is a “heads up” for possible future flooding along all rivers and creeks within a nominated valley and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

From late Saturday night (22/6/13) through to Monday night, heavy rain is expected over coastal districts between Narooma and Seal Rocks. This rain is likely to cause local and main river flooding.

At this stage there is a greater than 70% chance of flooding along the following river valleys:-

Paterson and Williams Valleys – minor to moderate flooding

Wyong Valley – minor flooding

Georges River Valley – minor flooding

Nepean River Valley – minor to moderate flooding

Heavy rain combined with King Tides over the same periods may also expose the tidal zones of the Cooks and the Woronora Rivers to minor flooding.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and creeks must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. Across NSW about 75% of Flood Watches are followed by flooding within the catchment.

FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.nsw.gov.au

For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately.

 

 

 

Flood Watch for parts of NSW

Extreme Storm News image

The Moore tornado damage – total desctruction!

Extreme Storm News image

El Reno wedge tornado survivors

This photograph is a closeup view of the vehicle. chances of survival becomes slim when the vehicle is crushed and with glass breaking debris being hurled around at high speeds.

This vehicle was one of the victims if this tornado. The axle lay on the opposite side of the road – was not sure from which vehicle it came from.

 

 

 

 

El Reno wedge tornado survivors

Vehicle tossed and destroyed in the El Reno Tornado 31st May 2013

Vehicle tossed and destroyed in the El Reno Tornado 31st May 2013

Snapped power poles

Snapped power poles

El Reno tornado damage snapped power pole and roof damage

El Reno tornado damage snapped power pole and roof damage

Extreme Storm News image

This is a downed power pole on Meridian Avenue near the Oklahoma City Airport. Apparently a tornadic track did end up the region but not sure if this particular power pole was downed by powerful winds. There were two phases of the supercell. The first contained the tornado and then the supercell sent a powerfull region of outflow which caused straight line wind damage and wih warnings of localised tornadoes.

Extreme Storm News image

El Reno Tornado Power Flashes 31st May 2013

Check out the power flashes inside the rotating rain. We are headed east and the camera is pointing WSW towards a region rapidly rotating rain – the tornado at times cane be seen inside the rain. The power flashes are evidence of this as it brings down power poles.

El Reno Tornado Power Flashes 31st May 2013

Violent Wedge Tornado El Rino 31st May 2013

The El Rino tornado developed on a day exhibiting potent conditions – an environment with extreme CAPE and an explosive atmosphere. The tornado emerged from the mass of cloud and instantly began to produce vorticies! We were only about 1km from the tornado.

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Violent Wedge Tornado El Rino 31st May 2013